WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

 

TECH STOCKS TUMBLE ON FEAR FED MAY NOT DO THE WRONG THING, $870M BITCOIN ETFS OUTFLOWS

Nov 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Fears

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows QQQ has dipped into zone 1 (support).
  • The chart shows QQQ is making a lower low than the prior low.
  • The chart shows that QQQ has very quickly given up the gains from the government opening euphoria.
  • RSI on the chart shows QQQ is oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.
  • A pullback to the low band of zone 1 (support) and even a slight break is a normal part of the course.  What is unusual is that based on historical precedent such a move typically  happens in September and October, but instead this year is happening in November.
  • Assuming the upcoming data is as expected,  expect money managers to start buying in year end chase.  However, if the data is worse than expected and there is more evidence that the Fed will not do the wrong thing, the risk to the stock market will rise.  It will be important to watch the data as it comes and also pay attention to Fed speak.
  • We have been repeatedly sharing with you that, in addition to AI, the other big reason for the stock market rise has been liquidity and loose financial conditions.  The consensus has been that liquidity will increase and financial conditions will become even looser in December.  A part of the equation has been a strong belief that the Fed would cut interest rates in December even if the data does not justify it.
  • As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve.  Yesterday morning before the stock market open, we shared with you:

Prudent investors should pay attention that at this time, four Fed presidents, Goolsbee, Musalem, Collins, and Schmid, are not calling for a rate cut in December.

  • Yesterday, the stock market fell and is also seeing selling in the early trade today on the fear that the Fed may not do the wrong thing.  The wrong thing to do is to cut interest rates even when the data does not justify it.  The stock market is troubled that in spite of intense political pressure, four Fed presidents have the gumption to stand up for the right thing.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there is a better than 50% probability of a rate cut in December.  Investors should not get carried away against or in favor of a rate cut, and instead investors should focus on the data.  Due to the government shutdown, we have not been getting the data.  Now that the government is open, a deluge of data is ahead.  
  • A near term determinant of the stock market direction will be Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the market reaction, which are scheduled to be reported on November 19.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales were not released this morning due to the government shutdown.
  • Especially hard hit are momo accounts that were aggressively buying call options on cryptos and highly speculative stocks.  Many of these accounts are now totally blown.  Even those momo accounts that were buying the momo crowds favorite stocks such as Oklo (OKLO), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), IREN (IREN), Robinhood (HOOD), and CoreWeave (CRWV) on margin have experienced margin calls leading to forced selling.  This is causing inordinate pain among the momo crowd.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Gold and silver are being sold on concerns that the Fed may not do the wrong thing.  Gold and silver benefit when the Fed does the wrong thing.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

We previously shared with you when bitcoin (BTC.USD) was much higher that bitcoin whales were selling.

Two big drivers of bitcoin are liquidity and loose financial conditions.  Yesterday, bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $870M on concerns that the Fed may not do the wrong thing.  This was the second biggest one day outflow in bitcoin ETFs.  As of this writing, bitcoin is trading around $95K.

Bitcoin promoters are out in force, trying to convince retail investors to double down on bitcoin.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6693 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 305 points.

Gold futures are at $4051, silver futures are at $50.50, and oil futures are at $59.84.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

See also  WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

 

MONEY MOVING INTO HEALTHCARE NOT AI, FOUR FED PRESIDENTS DO NOT WANT A RATE CUT, EUPHORIA WEARING OFF

Nov 13, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Rotating To Healthcare

Please click here for a chart comparing Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX), Nvidia stock (NVDA), healthcare ETF (XLV), and biotech ETF (XBI).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows healthcare ETF XLV and biotech ETF XBI have outperformed SPY so far this month by 5.8% and 3.88%, respectively.
  • The chart shows in November so far QQQ is underperforming compared to SPY.
  • The chart shows NVDA stock is underperforming SPY by 6.31% in November.
  • The chart illustrates why it is important to have a properly structured portfolio.  XLV and XBI are in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
  • As the end of 2025 approaches, money is moving into healthcare and biotech, not AI.
  • The momo crowd is still aggressively buying AI stocks, but non-momo investors are concerned that AI stocks are overbought and are diversifying into other sectors.  However, investors need to be aware that analysts have been upgrading their earnings expectations for this quarter for tech stocks more than other stocks – 8.7% for tech stocks and 1.9% for non-tech stocks.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, as the year end gets closer, in the absence of any news or data that is negative for AI, expect money managers to buy AI stocks for window dressing purposes.
  • We previously wrote:

 Here are the main questions for the Fed as it balances inflation and the risks to the labor market:

  • Are price increases from tariffs a one time event or will they sustain?

  • Is weak hiring an indication of reduced supply or slowed demand?

  • Are rates restrictive?

  • Prudent investors should pay attention that at this time, four Fed presidents, Goolsbee, Musalem, Collins, and Schmid, are not calling for a rate cut in December.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, there is still better than 50% probability of a rate cut in December, not because the data supports it but because of intense political pressure.  Of course, a deluge of data is ahead.
  • The momo crowd has been euphoric about the government reopening.  We previously wrote:
  • Here is a noteworthy market behavior that is typical of bull markets.

    • The stock market did not see selling when the government was initially shut down.

    • The stock market is seeing aggressive buying on the prospect of the government opening.

    • In a bull market, it is typical for negative news to be ignored and positive news to be bought.

  • As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve.  This morning as the government opens, it is occurring to investors that the stock market did not sell off on the government shutdown and they are wondering why there is euphoria on reopening.  The result is many investors are selling into the euphoria.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims will not be released today due to the government shutdown.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 1.3M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.7M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has been seeing selling pressure but is range bound as of this writing.  Investors are closely watching the psychological support level of $100K.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6856 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 97 points.

Gold futures are at $4232, silver futures are at $53.39, and oil futures are at $59.17.

 

AMD WANTS TO TAKE AI SHARE AWAY FROM NVIDIA, BUYING ON GOVERNMENT OPEN CONTINUES, FED DIVIDED

Nov 12, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Share

Please click here for a chart of Advanced Micro Devices stock (AMD).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of AMD stock is being used to illustrate the point.
  • The chart shows AMD stock trading in a wide range yesterday as the company conducted its investor day.
  • The chart shows AMD moving up this morning.
  • The price action in AMD is a learning moment for investors.  It is not how good the investor day is.  It is how what is said compares to expectations. The reason for high volatility was that investor expectations were very high that AMD would give more bullish numbers than what were already discounted in the stock.  It turned out that, with the exception of total addressable market, the numbers AMD provided were already discounted in the stock.
  • RSI on the chart shows that if upward momentum takes hold, the stock has room to run.
  • Here are the key points from AMD’s investor day:
    • AMD is planning to take AI market share away from Nvidia (NVDA). In The Arora Report analysis, AMD has a shot at capturing 10+% market share in AI.
    • AMD is projecting 35% compounded annual growth rate over the next three to five years.
    • AMD is targeting $20 in earnings per share by 2030.
    • AMD has increased its total addressable market to over $1T.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, in the longer term, one of the key factors will be if OpenAI fully ramps to six gigawatt potential with AMD.  The other key factor will be how many gigawatt-scale customers AMD attracts.
  • Yesterday, NVDA stock was sold.  This morning NVDA stock is seeing buying after a key supplier Foxconn said that it expects strong AI demand through next year and reported 17% earnings increase year-over-year.
  • The Fed is divided over a possible interest rate cut in December.  Here are the main questions for the Fed as it balances inflation and the risks to the labor market:
    • Are price increases from tariffs a one time event or will they sustain?
    • Is weak hiring an indication of reduced supply or slowed demand?
    • Are rates restrictive?
  • After the government opens, economic data will start to trickle in and may become a big driver of the markets.
  • This morning, there is buying in the stock market as euphoria about the government reopening continues.
  • Prudent investors need to be aware of a new development that may become a trend.  During the pandemic, wages of hourly employees rapidly rose.  Lately, wages have been stagnant, but now, wages may start coming down.  This is not a good development for the low end consumers and in turn, for the companies that sell to low end consumers.  Walgreens has announced it will decrease wages for hourly workers and no longer provide paid holidays and vacations.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
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India

India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at 0.25% year-over-year vs. 0.48% consensus.

In The Arora Report analysis, this data increases the probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India.   If on top of this India strikes a good trade deal with the U.S., stocks in India could rip.  There will be a new signal on India ETF EPI in ZYX Allocation and ZYX Emerging.  When appropriate, there may also be new signals on India ETFs SMIN and GLIN in ZYX Emerging.  There may also be a signal on India focused fund FFXDF in ZYX Buy.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The discount on Russian oil has widened to about $20 per barrel due to India reducing buying of Russian oil.  The $20 discount is the highest this year.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6896 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 124 points.

Gold futures are at $4131, silver futures are at $51.57, and oil futures are at $60.11.

 

POSTER CHILD OF AI DATA CENTER TRADE STUMBLES, SOFTBANK SELLS NVIDIA

Nov 11, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

The Wide Spread AI Investing Myth

Please click here for a chart of CoreWeave stock (CRWV).

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of CRWV stock is being used to illustrate the point.  CoreWeave is the poster child of the AI data center trade among the momo crowd.  CoreWeave is one of the most important AI stocks for investors.  
  • The chart shows the gap down on earnings.
  • The chart shows CRWV stock has fallen below the psychologically important level of $100 as of this writing in the premarket.
  • The chart shows CRWV stock fell to the top of zone 1 (support).  For the AI trade, it is critical that this zone holds. 
  • CoreWeave is a recent IPO.  CRWV IPO was priced at $40. The chart shows initially CRWV stock fell as low as $33.51, below the IPO price.  There were several reasons for the stock to fall:
    • Investors felt CRWV stock was over hyped.
    • Investors were concerned about very high debt levels.
    • Investors were convinced of the high demand for AI data centers but were concerned about supply chain issues and power issues that might get in the way of rapid data center development.  
    • CoreWeave buys Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, sets up the data centers, and rents out the capacity. The concern has been the longevity of the demand relative to supply when current contracts expire.
    • Nvidia has a very rapid cycle of introducing new products.  The concern has been that the servers in the data centers can rapidly become obsolete.
    • There have been serious concerns that CorWeave may be depreciating AI chips slower than they should.
    • Data centers are historically a low margin business once demand stabilizes.
  • After the initial drop, CRWV stock caught the attention of the momo crowd.
  • The chart shows the momo crowd ran CRWV stock all the way to $187.  Along the way, short sellers who saw the valuation as absurd initially lost money in a short squeeze. However, short sellers who stuck with the trade made out like bandits.
  • Here are the key points from CoreWeave earnings:
    • Adjusted EPS came at $0.22 vs. $0.40 consensus.
    • Revenue came at $1.36B vs. $1.29B.
    • Revenue projections came at $5.05B – $5.15B vs. $5.287B consensus.
    • Data center development by a third party developer is behind schedule.  The reason is difficulties in the supply chain, especially with transformers. 
    • AI demand far exceeds capacity.
  • There is a widespread belief, especially among the momo crowd, that all one has to do to make money in AI is to buy AI stocks that are pumped in the media.  This is irrespective of the price and without deep analysis.  The momo crowd’s plan is to hold these stocks because they think AI stocks are going to the moon.  The chart shows that this widespread belief about investing in AI is a myth.  
  • In The Arora Report analysis, all prior massive capex cycles after the invention of something new have ultimately led to a bust, which subsequently led to large losses for investors.  This happened after the invention of electricity, railroads, automobiles, and the internet.  The probability is low that the massive AI capex will end differently, especially for AI trades popular among the momo crowd.
  • Japan’s SoftBank (SFTBY) has sold all of its shares of NVDA and also some shares of T-Mobile (TMUS).  Both NVDA and TMUS are in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.   NVDA is long from $12.55, representing a gain of 1458%, and TMUS is long from $12.54, representing a gain of 1548% as of this writing in the premarket.
  • In The Arora Report analysis, SoftBank selling NVDA and TMUS stock is not as concerning as it sounds on the surface.  The reason is SoftBank is investing $30B in ChatGPT maker OpenAI.  SoftBank needs money for this investment.
  • In the pre-government reopening euphoria among investors, four things are throwing a monkey wrench this morning:
    • SoftBank selling NVDA shares
    • CoreWeave earnings
    • Quantum computing company Rigetti (RGTI) earnings. Rigetti reported Q3 revenue of $1.9M vs. $2.17M consensus and much higher whisper numbers. Rigetti’s market cap is $10.7B.
    • ADP data shows there was an average of 11,250 job losses per week for the four weeks ending October 25, 2025.  Expectations in the market had been for a gain.
  • Of note, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will be outlining its AI business plan to financial analysts today.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

India

On the positive side, President Trump is saying he is close to a trade deal with India.  On the negative side, explosions rocked both India and Pakistan.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in  Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

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Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6840 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 27 points.

Gold futures are at $4146, silver futures are at $51.01, and oil futures are at $60.80.

 

AGGRESSIVE STOCK BUYING ON OPTIMISM OF THE GOVERNMENT OPENING DESPITE SLOWING TSM SALES, GOLD SURGES

Nov 10, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Aggressive Stock Buying

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the stock market was falling rapidly when The Arora Report wrote the FAA was cutting flights and this would put pressure on both sides to reach an agreement and reopen the government.
  • The chart shows the Arora call that stocks can rip higher on the prospect of the government reopening.  This call was made when stocks were being aggressively sold, as shown on the chart.
  • Only a few hours later, the chart shows the stock market turned on rumors that the government would reopen.
  • The chart shows the stock market took another leg up on a media report that the government would reopen.
  • The chart shows aggressive buying in the stock market in the early trade today on optimism that the government will reopen soon.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.  The VUD indicator has turned orange, indicating net supply of stocks.  This shows that underneath the euphoric buying there is a net supply of stocks.
  • As is often the case, The Arora Report members were ahead of the curve.
  • Here is a noteworthy market behavior that is typical of bull markets.
    • The stock market did not see selling when the government was initially shut down.
    • The stock market is seeing aggressive buying on the prospect of the government opening.
    • In a bull market, it is typical for negative news to be ignored and positive news to be bought.
  • Sales data from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is important.  TSM manufactures Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) chips.  The momentum of revenue increases is slowing at TSM.  This should concern prudent investors about the AI trade.  However, in the euphoria of the government potentially reopening, no one is paying attention this morning.  Here are the details:
    • October revenue increased 11% month-over-month and 16.9% year-over-year to roughly $11.9B.  This is the slowest increase since early 2024.
    • TSM raised its revenue growth forecast.
    • TSM is maintaining its forecast for capital spending along with expectations of continued robust AI demand.
  • There is a contrasting behavior between the stock market and gold this morning.  Expectations in the market were that gold would fall when the government reopened.  These expectations made sense because gold is bought when uncertainty rises, and the government reopening reduces uncertainty.  However, gold is surging.  The reason is the government opening means the government will be spending recklessly, adding to the national debt.
  • As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks.  For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks.  It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks.  The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis.  When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals.  Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6814 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 165 points.

Gold futures are at $4104, silver futures are at $49.81, and oil futures are at $60.06.

 

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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