Our prediction that the fiscal cliff would be resolved has turned out to be partially right. It is important not to get carried away with optimism because only one part of the three-part puzzle has been addressed. The three parts are: taxes, spending and the debt ceiling. The fiscal-cliff deal
Astute long-term investors are getting increasingly tired of quantitative easing (QE) or similar monetary moves from the Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the People’s Bank of China. In an environment where assets are artificially inflated, investors have increasingly turned to gold.
While the S&P 500 is making highs, the Chinese market is beginning to dip. The big news is the firing of Bo Xilai, the populist leader. Bo was the head of Chongqing Municipality. Bo successfully led the city of about 30 million people to rapid development, narrowed the gap between
The China super cycle is over. China will still grow at a heady pace, but I believe the torrid growth rates of 10% plus are a thing of the past. In my article, Generate wealth in 2012 and beyond , I described that the last big-picture macro cycle was ending.
The key to generating wealth over a long period of time is to identify when one macro cycle ends and a new macro cycle begins. In economics, a macro cycle is defined as a cycle of big picture economic performance, structure, and behavior. No bell is rung at the end
It turns out that Mario Draghi is Super Mario. Mario Draghi is an ex-central bank governor of Italy who just took over from Jean-Claude Trichet the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB). In a surprise bold move, Draghi announced that the ECB is lowering its main rate from 1.5%
Recent US market rally, in part, is based on growth projections from China’s stimulus. Our analysis of the data from China indicates that stimulus induced Chinese growth may be faltering. If our analysis is correct, US market may also falter. If US market starts faltering, consider short selling Chinese market.