(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
STRONG EMPLOYMENT REPORT, GOLD SQUEEZES SHORTS
December 6, 2013
The U. S. Department of Labor reported a very strong employment report for November. Nonfarm Private Payrolls came at 96K in line with consensus. However, unemployment rate fell to 7.0% vs. 7.25 consensus and 7.3% in October.
October Core PCE Prices, a good indicator of future inflation, came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.
The only negative in this morning’s data is that October Personal Income came at -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Gold should have fallen about $50 on this report, but after initially falling to $1210, shorts were squeezed all the way up to $1235.
Gold is extremely dangerous at this time in both long and short directions. Our algorithms show that Smart Money is staying clear of gold and silver this morning. It is simply a battle between the momo crowd that thinks gold has reached a bargain level and short sellers who look at the fundamentals and think gold should be much lower. There is no way to know who will win this battle in the short-term.
Gold futures are at $1233, silver futures are at $19.63, and oil futures are $97.40.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are up 88 points.
BLOWOUT GDP, GOLD FAILS TO KEEP ITS GAINS
December 5, 2013
Q3 GDP second estimate came at 3.6% vs. 3% consensus. This means that the U. S. economy is getting much better.
ECB leaves its rate unchanged and expects inflation to be in check.
Yesterday gold gained on short covering, but has given up all of those gains this morning.
Gold futures are at $1223, silver futures are at $19.31, and oil futures are $97.32.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are down 39 points.
BLOWOUT EMPLOYMENT NUMBER FROM ADP, OPEC DECIDES NOT TO EXPAND AS IRAN RETURNS
December 4, 2013
ADP Employment Change came at 215K vs. 160K consensus. In other words employment in the private sector is getting much better than expectations.
Gold briefly dipped on the news as is logical, but then rapidly rebounded. This indicates that at this level there are many bargain hunters trying to buy gold.
Interest rates are higher.
OPEC decides not to expand oil production. This means that some countries, like Saudi, will have to cut production because Iran and Libya are returning to the market. As a result, oil is higher.
Gold futures are at $1229, silver futures are at $19.33, and oil futures are $96.96.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are down 29 points.
EUROPEANS TAKE CHIPS OFF THE TABLE AHEAD OF FRIDAY’S REPORT
December 3, 2013
This coming Friday, the U. S. Department of Labor will release November employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report has the potential to be a make or break event for all markets, but especially for the stock market that is over bought.
This morning Europeans are aggressively taking chips off the table ahead of the report. As an example, the French market is down 1.95%.
So far gold has failed to make even a feeble rally.
Interest and oil are stable.
Gold futures are at $1220, silver futures are at $19.12, and oil futures are $93.77.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1800, 1825, and 1837; support levels are 1775, 1766, and 1750.
DJIA futures are down 78 points.
THANKSGIVING RETAIL SALES DROP FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS, GOLD GIVES UP ITS GAINS
December 2, 2013
Despite more hours and heavy promotions, retails sales over the Thanksgiving weekend dropped for the first time in seven years. According to the National Retail Federation, total sales over the weekend will be $57.4 billion compared to $59 billion last year; 141 million people shopped compared to 139 million last year but average spend fell to $407 from $424. This is not good news for retail stocks.
PMI data from China was better than expectations. Usually gold runs when this data is better, but not today. There was heavy selling in Europe in gold. As of this writing, gold has given up all of its gains from Friday.
Interest rates are slightly higher.
Oil is trying to stage a recovery but so far not succeeding.
Gold futures are at $1236, silver futures are at $19.66, and oil futures are $93.46.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1825, 1837, and 1850; support levels are 1800, 1775, and 1766.
DJIA futures are up 6 points.