WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: WALL STREET POSITIVE ON IMPEACHMENT, MARIJUANA BANKING, BEST MOVE IN INDIAN STOCKS $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: WALL STREET POSITIVE ON IMPEACHMENT, MARIJUANA BANKING, BEST MOVE IN INDIAN STOCKS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

PERSONAL SPENDING DROPS, SENTIMENT IN EUROPE, BAD NEWS FOR OIL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Personal Spending

The U. S. economy is 70% consumer based.  For this reason, it is important to keep track of personal spending.

August Personal Spending came at 0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.

Interestingly Personal Income came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.

PCE Index

August Core PCE Price Index came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.  It is important to watch this number because this is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Durable Goods

Durable Goods Ex-transports came at 0.5% vs. 0.2% consensus.

Sentiment In Europe

The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator fell to the lowest level in four years.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

There has been aggressive selling in gold by the momo crowd.  There is some buying coming in right here around $1500 as of this writing from technically oriented buyers based on the presumption that the support at $1500 will hold. Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is being sold on a report that Saudi Arabia has agreed to a partial cease fire in Yemen.  The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

We will do separate posts for those still holding USO short position or inverse ETF DWT long position.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is back to selling marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

A major Wall Street bank downgraded CGC for the short term because they just now figured out that growth in Canada will slow.  Of course we shared with you that this would happen months ago when the stock was trading over $50.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative based on rumors or news related to Iran, China or impeachment.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking  down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1501, silver futures are at $17.60, and oil futures are $55.18.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 55 points.

WALL STREET CONSENSUS IMPEACHMENT POSITIVE, WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT, MARIJUANA BANKING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

GDP

Third estimate of Q2 GDP came at 2.0% vs. 2.0% consensus.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 213K vs. 212K consensus.

Impeachment Positive

Yesterday, Wall Street reached a consensus that Trump impeachment inquiry is a positive for the market. This was one of  the scenarios we described in yesterday’s Morning Capsule.

In our analysis at The Arora Report, it is too early to tell.  Impeachment is a risk factor and investors should not dismiss it.

Whistleblower Complaint

House Intel Committee has just released the whistleblower complaint against President Trump. We have the document but since it was just released, we have not yet studied it.

The most important thing to watch is how Wall Street reacts to this report as the day progresses.  The immediate reaction from Wall Street is positive.  Often the initial reaction is wrong.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

As Wall Street turned positive on Trump impeachment, no need was felt for the safe haven of gold and gold was aggressively sold. In the early trade the momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil has fallen back to pre-Saudi attack levels.  Our call to short sell oil or buy inverse ETFs on the Saudi attack spike has proven spot on.

EIA data was bearish for oil.

The momo crowd is selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

In a big positive for marijuana, the House passed SAFE Banking Act.  The bill protects banks doing business with marijuana companies. However the celebration is likely to be short lived because the Senate is not expected to pass the bill. Nonetheless, this is a major positive development for long term marijuana investors.

The momo crowd has switched from selling marijuana stocks to buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Home builders are tracing a flag.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest in XHB.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way as the whistleblower complaint is digested.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1514, silver futures are at $17.98, and oil futures are $55.84.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 16 points.

FIVE IMPORTANT POINTS EVERY PRUDENT INVESTOR OUGHT TO CONSIDER ABOUT TRUMP IMPEACHMENT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Impeachment

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced that the House is starting a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump.

First and foremost I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help prudent investors achieve high risk adjusted returns. This column is neither about politics nor about the merits of Trump impeachment inquiry. This column is about helping investors tune out the noise about Trump impeachment and rationally think about the impact on their investments going forward. Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions can be drawn from the charts of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and small-cap ETF (IWM).

Note the following:

  • The chart is divided into three segments.
  • The left most segment is for a period when the economy was strong.
  • The middle segment is for a period when the economy was slowing.
  • The right most segment is the future.
  • Slow economy is expected in the future.
  • The chart shows two Arora buy signals.
  • The chart shows two Arora signals to protect portfolios.
  • The middle segment shows Trump being persistent in seeking a good trade deal with China for the long term.
  • The right most segment shows the future period when Trump will have strong incentive to strike a weak deal with China before the election.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the market can go either way from here.

Five Important Points For Investors

The foregoing sets the landscape in which investors ought to consider the following five key points:

  • The most important point is that previously, when the stock market was in the left most and middle segments shown on the chart, it was resilient to Mueller investigation and other political developments. However during that time, the economy was strong.  Now the economy is slowing.  For this reason, there is potential that at this time the stock market may not be as resilient as it was last time. In the future, economy may be even slower. For this reason, going forward, the stock market may be even more vulnerable to impeachment inquiry or other similar political maneuvers.  This is a potential negative.
  • The second most important point is that this impeachment inquiry may give Trump incentive to strike a ‘not so good’ deal with China.  This is a potential positive in the short term for the stock market but negative in the long term.
  • You will hear a lot of statistics about Clinton impeachment and the stock market. Consider not wasting your time and energy on such statistics. The world, the economy and the stock market conditions are very different now compared to the Clinton era.
  • There is a scenario under which the impeachment inquiry may turn out to be positive for the stock market. If the American public at large views impeachment as mostly politically motivated, it may increase the probability of Trump re-election.
  • Under a different scenario of the American public generally viewing that President Trump did something very wrong, the momentum for a Democrat such as Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Bernie Sanders will pick up. This will likely be a negative for the stock market.

A Radical Leftist Agenda

The stock market can do equally well under both Democrat and Republican administrations. However, if a radical leftist agenda is implemented in a way that cuts the legs of capitalism that has generated American prosperity, consider the following:

  • In this scenario the prospect of devastating probes into big tech companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) will put downward pressure on these stocks.
  • Big bank stocks such as JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C ) may see selling on the prospect of banks being turned into utilities.
  • Semiconductor stocks such as Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), Micron (MU) and NVIDA (NVDA) may get hurt on increasing acrimony with China and so will export oriented industrials such as Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE).
  • Health insurance stocks such as UnitedHealth (UNH), Humana (HUM), Cigna (CI) and Anthem (ANTM) may be decimated.
  • Popular pharmaceutical stocks such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE) and Lilly (LLY) may be aggressively sold.
  • Many of the popular high dividend stocks may suffer.
  • Gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner ETF (GDX) may do well.
  • Short sellers and those with expertise in using inverse ETFs may make out like bandits.
  • Short term traders may end up making money by the boat load while buy and hold investors suffer.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

There is heavy buying in gold by the momo crowd on concerns regarding Trump impeachment.  Interestingly, at least at this time, the stock market momo crowd is dismissing impeachment concerns.  Investors ought to keep in mind that the gold momo crowd and the stock momo crowd are two entirely different groups and their actions are not typically in sync. 

Oil

API data showed a crude inventory build of 1.38 million barrels vs. 768K barrel draw consensus.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil. Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart  money activity in marijuana in the early trade.  Yesterday the momo crowd was aggressively selling marijuana stocks.  The momo crowd is beginning to book heavy losses in marijuana stocks after buying them much higher and continuing to buy them as they fell in very large quantities.

Technical Patterns

Solar stocks are tracing an engulfing line.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is TAN.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily swing positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1534, silver futures are at $18.57, and oil futures are $56.23.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are down 31 points.

GOODWILL GESTURE ON SOYBEANS BOOSTS THE MARKETS, OPTIMISM ON BREXIT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Soybeans

In a goodwill gesture, China has granted waivers to buy between two and three million tons of soybeans from the U. S. without tariffs.  The stock market is running up on the news.  However investors ought to note that soybean futures are not running up. This again shows that the U. S. market is controlled by the momo crowd.  The momo crowd is not known for its deep analysis.

Brexit Optimism

The U. K.  Supreme Court has ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament was unlawful. This is giving hope that the Brexit decision will be delayed.  Investors are seeing this as a positive.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Selling is coming into gold as money flows into stocks.  The momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo this morning.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

Treasury bonds are tracing a shooting star.  This is bearish.  ETFs of interest are TLT and TBT.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1530, silver futures are at $18.59, and oil futures are $58.03.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 56 points.

GERMAN PMI FALLS TO DECADE LOW, INDIAN STOCKS AFTER THE BEST MOVE IN A DECADE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Europe PMI

German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 41.4 vs. 44.0 consensus.  This is the worst reading in a decade.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI came at 45.6 vs. 47.3 consensus.  This is the lowest level in about seven years.

These numbers indicate that the manufacturing slowdown in Europe is deepening.

Indian Stocks Rocket

Indian stocks rocketed 5.3% on Friday, the biggest one day gain in 10 years prompted by a surprise corporate tax rate cut.  Today Indian stocks jumped an additional 2.8%.

As a full disclosure, both ZYX Emerging and ZYX Global have positions in India.

The Weakest Week

Historically, this is one of the weakest weeks in the stock market.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd was aggressively buying stock futures last night.  After the momentum turned lower as smart money sold on weaker European PMIs,  the momo crowd started aggressively selling.  As of this writing the momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is moving higher on weaker European PMIs.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  There is light buying by smart money.

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying silver.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

There is buying in oil on reports that it will take longer for Saudi facilities to be repaired.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil. Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is lightly buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Material stocks are tracing a symmetrical continuation triangle. This is bearish.  ETF of interest is XLB.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1525, silver futures are at $18.41, and oil futures are $58.07.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are down 23 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

FREE: SUBSCRIBE TO ‘GENERATE WEALTH’ NEWSLETTER

Related Posts

TRUMP’S IMPEACHMENT AND PERFORMANCE CHASE MAY PUSH DOW JONES TO 30,000 $DIA $DJIA $AMZN $AAPL $FB $DIS $WMT $AMD $INTC $MSFT $AMAT $MU

What a difference time makes. When I gave a “buy” signal on Donald Trump’s election at a time when many were ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: MOMO CROWD BUYING ON POTENTIAL TRADE DEAL IGNORING OTHER DATA, MARIJUANA SELLOFF $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

SURPRISE! WALMART BEATS AMAZON $DJIA $AMZN $WMT $DIA $GOOG $GOOGL $FB $AAPL

Walmart has beaten Amazon. No, that’s not a joke. As incredulous as that may seem, let me explain. Please click here for a ...

RED ALERT AS TRUMP MAY TRIGGER SOME MONEY MANAGERS TO BEHAVE RECKLESSLY $SPY $DJIA $QQQ $AMZN $SPX $AAPL $FB $INTC $AMD $AMAT $NVDA

Two potential scenarios are developing in the U.S. stock market. Both should be considered red alerts by prudent investors. Let’s explore ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BUYING ON TARIFF ROLLBACK BATTLE, CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS, GOLD BREAKS SUPPORT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: NEW HIGHS, UNEXPECTED STRENGTH IN JOBS AND CHINA $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

APPLE STOCK’S NEXT MILESTONE IS $320 AS THE CRUCIAL TRANSITION IS ON TRACK $AAPL $FB $SPY $FDN $NFLX $GOOG $GOOGL $HPQ $IBM $BB $NOK $HPE

  After reporting quarterly earnings Wednesday, Apple’s stock came close to $250, a target we had previously set. Looking forward, here is ...

HERE IS HOW TO PROFIT FROM FAKE MEAT STOCK BEYOND MEAT AND MARIJUANA STOCK TILRAY $BYND $TLRY $CGC $TLSA $ACB

What does fake meat and marijuana have in common? The commonality is that investors either made a lot, or lost ...

MARKET HIGHS MAY GIVE AN EXTRA BOOST TO THE STRATEGY TO MAKE 30% IN THREE MONTHS $UBER $KSHB $QQQ $SPY $DJIA $CGC $TLRY $ACB

Beyond daily gyrations, the U.S. stock market is still positive. The momo (momentum) crowd is bullish and aggressively buying shares. (The ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: EARNINGS DISAPPOINT BOTH BULLS AND BEARS, MEDICAL MARIJUANA EXPORT TO THE U. S., MOVE IN GOLD $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

IS A 20% DROP AHEAD IN THE STOCK MARKET LIKE LAST YEAR? $AAPL $MSFT $FB $AMZN $NVDA $MU $INTC $AMD $GOOG $QQQ $SPY $DJIA

At the end of 2018 the stock market fell about 20%. Could it happen again this year? Let’s use a chart ...

THIS FAANG DARLING STOCK HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS MOJO $NFLX $AAPL $AMZN $FB $GOOG $DIS $T $SPY $QQQ $DJIA

FAANG stocks are popular. But now one of them is beginning to lose its mojo. How long could this last? Let’s ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: SLOWEST CHINA GROWTH SINCE 1992, MARIJUANA INSANITY $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

THIS CHART SHOWS HOW MUCH BREXIT MATTERS TO THE U.S. STOCK MARKET $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $AMZN $FB $NFLX $NVDA $MU $AMD $INTC $GOOG

Many investors are getting excited about the Brexit deal. Some excitement is warranted because it took years of wrangling for the ...

PRUDENT INVESTORS TAKE NOTE OF A BIG TURN IN MONEY FLOWS IN APPLE, AMAZON, NETFLIX AND NVIDIA $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $NVDA $FB $AMD $BABA $INTC $MSFT $TSLA $GOOG

Earnings season has started. Wall Street is bullish on the first phase of President Trump’s trade deal with China. The ...

JPMORGAN: GOOD EARNINGS FROM THIS BIG BANK $JPM $C $BAC

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. JPMorgan (JPM) is long from $34.14.  It is trading at $118.50. JPM reported earnings  better than consensus and the whisper ...

THE TRADE DEAL GAME PLAN AFTER CHINA AND WALL STREET APPEAR TO HAVE WON THIS ROUND $AAPL $AMZN $DIA $DJIA $GLD $SLV $INTC $MU $SPY $AMZN

On the surface it appears that China and Wall Street won this round of the trade deal. Who lost? It appears ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRADE DEAL, GOLD SOLD, MARIJUANA TARGETS SLASHED, TURKEY INVASION $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

MARIJUANA INVESTORS DO NOT NEED A GUT PUNCH BUT ONE MAY BE COMING $ACB $APHA $TLRY $CGC $CRON $HEXO $GNLN $MMNFF

I’ve warned investors that making money in marijuana stocks is not as simple as loading up when the news is ...

HUMAN RIGHTS IN CHINA AND LIMIT TO CHINESE STOCKS WEIGH ON STOCK MARKET BULLS $GLD $SLV $FB $AMBA $ESZ19 $SPY $QQQ $GDX $INTC $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $MU

The repression of human rights in China, limits on American money flowing to Chinese stocks and a mini-crisis in Turkey ...

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox

Join other followers